Analysis of Burglary Hot Spots and Near-Repeat Victimization in a Large Chinese City

A hot spot refers to numerous crime incidents clustered in a limited space-time range. The near-repeat phenomenon suggests that every victimization might form a contagion-like pattern nearby in terms of both space and time. In this article, the near-repeat phenomenon is used to analyze the risk levels around hot spots. Utilizing a recent burglary dataset in N (a large city located in southeastern China), we examine the near-repeat phenomenon, the results of which we then use to test the contributions of hot spots. More importantly, we propose a temporal expanded near-repeat matrix to quantify the undulation of risk both before and after hot spots. The experimental results demonstrate that hot spots always form. Space-time areas of high risk are always variable in space and time. Regions in the vicinity of hot spots simultaneously share this higher risk. In general, crime risks around hot spots present as a wave diffusion process. The conclusions herein provide a detailed analysis of criminal patterns, which not only advances previous results but also provides valuable research results for crime prediction and prevention.